Does cash for school influence young women’s behavior in the longer term? Evidence from Pakistan

East Asia and Pacific Region

Pakistan

Social Protection

Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT)

Alam, A., Javier E.Baez and Ximena V. Del Carpio

2011

Alam, A., Javier E.Baez and Ximena V. Del Carpio, "Does cash for school influence young women’s behavior in the longer term? Evidence from Pakistan”, Policy Research Working Paper 5669, World Bank, 2011.
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2011

Female School Stipend Program (FSSP)

2003-

To promote participation in public education for girls in middle school

Beneficiary girls were targeted based on their district of residence (districts with the lowest literacy rates in the province – below 40 percent), and enrollment in eligible grades (grades 6 through 8) in public schools; eligibility was conditional on a minimum school attendance rate of 80 percent.

Program benefits comprise a quarterly stipend of approximately PKR 600 (equivalent to US$10) per female student.

• Children’s work: Paid work and unpaid work(within and outside the home), or looking for a job; Working hours
• Education: School enrollment; Grade and middle school completion
• Age range: girls aged 12-19 years

Difference-in-differences (DD) and Regression Discontinuity Design models (RDD)

Sample: The total number of schools is 60,000-62,000 from 2003-04 to 2009-10, however the sub-sample for this analysis is a pool of cross-sectional data that includes approximately 4,000 middle schools for girls in stipend and non-stipend districts. These are the schools that could be eligible for the program at both baseline and follow-up. The total number of surveyed households is 30,932 in 2003 and 91,280 in 2007-08.
Identification strategy: This paper estimates the impact of the program with information at the school and household levels. To deal with non-random program placement, the analysis contrasts cohorts of girls in treatment and control districts in double-difference and RDD frameworks. At the school-level, the analysis draws upon administrative data from school censuses to estimate the annual average changes in total female enrollment at public schools in stipend districts (treatment schools) for the period between 2004 and 2010 relative to the pre-program level (2003-04 academic year). These changes are then compared with the corresponding annual changes in female enrollment observed for public schools in non-stipend districts (control schools) during the same period. At the household-level, the outcomes of interest include relative changes between baseline (2003) and follow-up (2007-08) in partial measures of school attainment (middle school completion, and high school enrollment and completion), labor market participation, marriage, and fertility. The comparison is made between cohorts of girls with various levels of exposure to the program in stipend districts (treatment cohorts) and similar cohorts in non-stipend districts (control cohorts). Program impact estimates at the school and household levels should be interpreted as impacts on all eligible girls, whether or not they participated in the program (intent-to-treat impacts).
Survey instrument: The main data source for the school-level approach is the Punjab public school census collected annually in October from 2003 to 2009 by the provincial education department, including data from before and during the program implementation. It covers all public schools in Punjab and focuses on school information (including village name and date of establishment), infrastructure, teaching staff, enrollment, and some organizational indicators. The household surveys include the Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement survey (PSLM) collected in 2004-05, the Punjab Multiple Cluster Survey (MICS) collected in 2003, and the Pakistan Integrated Household Survey (PIHS) collected in 2001. Other data come from National Education Census collected in 2005 on both public and private schools. The main data source for the household-level approach is two waves of the MICS collected in 2003 (pre-program) and 2007-08 (post-program). The surveys used to construct covariates for the school-level analysis are again used for the household-level analysis. This includes the PSLM, which relies on a similar sampling strategy as the MICS. Other data come from the PIHS, the National Education Census, administrative data of other programs under the PESRP, and the annual Punjab public school census collected in 2003.

The analysis based on school-level data provides systematic evidence that the program helps girls progress through middle school. The point estimates from DD and RDD models indicate that the program raises enrollment not only in grade 6 but also in grades 7 and 8 for the same cohorts. The evidence on school progression based on household-level data seems to validate the findings obtained with school data as it also suggests that the program increases the chances that girls complete middle school. Overall, results indicate that 12-17 year-old girls who were exposed to the program (for different periods) between 2003-04 and 2007-08 are on average around 3.3 percentage points more likely to have completed middle school (grade 8) relative to the control cohorts. This is equivalent to an increase of 4.5 percent relative to the baseline value of the treatment group. The impacts on middle school completion are larger for girls aged 15-16 (6 percentage points) but none for girls older than 16. The results show that the program helps girls transition from middle to high school and complete grade 9, especially those younger than 17. Girls aged 15-16 are 5 percentage points more likely to complete grade 9 than the control group. The results of DD and RDD models indicate that there is a statistically significant reduction in the labor force participation of around 4-5 percentage points among girls in stipend districts, which is largely driven by a reduction in girls’ participation in unpaid family work. The results indicate that cohorts aged 15-16 worked 7 days less per month (around 2.8 hours per day), relative to their counterfactuals in non-stipend districts

Child Labour

Households

Local

There seems to be a reduction in the labour force participation of around 4-5 percentage points among girls in stipend districts, which is largely driven by a reduction in girls’ participation in unpaid family work. The results indicate that cohorts aged 15-16 worked 7 days less per month after the intervention.

The evidence suggests that the program helps girls progress through middle school. The program seems to raise enrollment and increases the chances that girls complete middle school. The results show that the program helps girls transition from middle to high school.

Overall, estimates from DD and RDD models do not show any impacts of the program on the probability of being legally married. However, when looking at age at marriage, the analysis identifies that after the program started girls in stipend districts are likely to marry about 1.2-1.5 years later. The results show that boys residing in the same household as girls in participating districts are more likely to be enrolled in private primary schools.